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MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) that forecasters have been monitoring entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 2 pm on Sunday, July 14.
In a Facebook Live video shortly before 6 pm on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is now 980 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
Even before the LPA entered PAR, its trough or extension had already brought rain to parts of the country, mainly in Mindanao and the Visayas.
Now that the LPA is inside, scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected in:
- Bicol
- Mimaropa
- Visayas
- Mindanao
The rest of the country will only have isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms.
PAGASA said the LPA appears unlikely to make landfall, but it might become a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, or by Tuesday, July 16.
If it becomes a tropical depression, it would be the Philippines’ 6th tropical cyclone for 2019 and would be given the local name Falcon. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)
The potential tropical depression is also expected to enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.
At the moment, the southwest monsoon is still temporarily weak – a period called a monsoon break. The monsoon break has been ongoing for more than a week. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)
The Philippines gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.
Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from July to December:
- July – 2 or 3
- August – 2 to 4
- September – 2 to 4
- October – 2 or 3
- November – 1 or 2
- December – 0 or 1
PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com
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