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MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 8 am on Tuesday, November 12. It has been given the local name Ramon.

In a bulletin issued past 11 am on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Tropical Depression Ramon is 835 kilometers east southeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or 685 kilometers east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.

The tropical depression is moving west at a slow pace of 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).

At the moment, Ramon has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is expected to intensify into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

There are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals yet. But PAGASA said Signal No. 1 could be raised in Eastern Samar and the eastern part of Northern Samar on Tuesday afternoon.

PAGASA also warned that Ramon will bring rain in the next days. Below are the areas expected to be affected.

Wednesday, November 13

• Light to moderate rain with occasionally heavy rain
• Bicol
• Samar
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Romblon
• Marinduque
• southern part of Quezon

Thursday, November 14

• Light to moderate rain with occasionally heavy rain
• Isabela
• Quirino
• northern part of Aurora
• Polillo Island
• Camarines Norte
• Light to moderate rain with intermittent heavy rain
• Aklan
• Capiz
• Romblon
• Marinduque
• southern part of Quezon
• rest of Bicol

Travel is also risky, especially for small vessels, in the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and the Visayas. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Ramon’s latest forecast track shows that landfall is possible in Luzon, though what’s called the cone of uncertainty – shown in the image below – also indicates that it may not hit land. Either way, rain is expected from the tropical depression.

Ramon is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 2nd for November. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones for the last two months of 2019:

• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com