Catanduanes and the eastern part of Camarines Sur were placed under Signal No. 4 early Saturday evening, October 31, due to Typhoon Rolly (Goni), which is threatening the region of Bicol.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 8 pm bulletin on Saturday that Rolly is already 280 kilometers east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes.

The typhoon slightly slowed down, now moving west southwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 25 km/h.

Rolly continues to have maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h and gustiness of up to 265 km/h. Though not a super typhoon under PAGASA’s classification system – a super typhoon has winds exceeding 220 km/h – Rolly is the world’s strongest tropical cyclone for 2020 so far.

PAGASA said Rolly is likely to remain a typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 185 to 215 km/h, by the time it makes landfall. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Check this updated list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 8 pm on Saturday:

Signal No. 4 (very destructive typhoon-force winds)

• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan)

Signal No. 3 (destructive typhoon-force winds)

• Camarines Norte
• rest of Camarines Sur
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Burias and Ticao Islands
• Marinduque
• southern part of Quezon (Atimonan, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, Lopez, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez)
• Northern Samar

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale- to storm-force winds)

• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• southern part of Nueva Ecija (Cabiao, San Isidro, Gapan City, General Tinio, Peñaranda, San Antonio, Jaen, San Leonardo, Santa Rosa, Cabanatuan City, Palayan City, Laur, Gabaldon, Bongabon)
• southern part of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City)
• Bataan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• Cavite
• Batangas
• Laguna
• southern part of Aurora (Maria Aurora, San Luis, Baler, Dingalan)
• rest of Quezon including Polillo Island
• rest of Masbate
• Romblon
• Oriental Mindoro
• Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• northern part of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Niño, Almagro, Tagapul-an)
• northern part of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
• extreme northern part of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya)
• northwestern part of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)

Signal No. 1 (strong breeze to near gale conditions)

• rest of Zambales
• Tarlac
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• rest of Aurora
• Pangasinan
• La Union
• southern part of Ilocos Sur (Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, San Emilio, Candon City, Galimuyod, Santa Lucia, Cervantes, Sigay, Santa Cruz, Suyo, Tagudin, Alilem, Sugpon)
• Mountain Province
• Benguet
• Ifugao
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• central and southern parts of Isabela (Mallig, Quirino, Ilagan, Roxas, San Manuel, Burgos, Gamu, Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Aurora, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Angadanan, Alicia, San Isidro, Ramon, Santiago City, Cordon)
• Calamian Islands
• Biliran
• northern part of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi)
• rest of Aklan
• northern part of Capiz (Jamindan, Mambusao, Sapi-an, Ivisan, Roxas City, Panay, Pilar, Sigma, Dao, Panitan, Pontevedra, President Roxas)
• northern part of Iloilo (Carles, Balasan, Estancia, Batad)

PAGASA added that strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will persist in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela that are not under a tropical cyclone wind signal.

Meanwhile, Rolly’s outer rainbands are affecting the following areas on Saturday night:

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Bicol
• Quezon
• Visayas

Beginning early Sunday morning, November 1, the passage of the typhoon will cause intense rain, which may trigger floods and landslides.

Heavy to intense rain

• Metro Manila
• Bicol
• Calabarzon
• Aurora
• Bulacan
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of Central Luzon
• Cagayan Valley
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Ilocos Region

Rolly’s track

PAGASA said the center of the eye of the typhoon is now likely to make landfall in Catanduanes early Sunday morning.

Then it will pass over mainland Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur on Sunday morning, and over mainland Quezon on Sunday afternoon.

“Violent winds and intense rainfall” from Rolly’s inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced in Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur from early Sunday morning to afternoon, and over Quezon from Sunday afternoon to evening.

The center of the typhoon will then cross the Southern Luzon-Metro Manila area. PAGASA earlier warned Metro Manila may be directly in Rolly’s path.

Rolly could exit mainland Luzon landmass early Monday morning, November 2.

PAGASA said Rolly may emerge as a severe tropical storm or “minimal” typhoon over the West Philippine Sea, as it would “weaken considerably” while crossing Luzon.

Coastal conditions

Storm surges are another hazard to watch out for in the next 24 hours, as they “may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.” Storm surges could be “accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.”

• northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes – more than 3 meters high
• coastal areas of Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan; southeastern coastal area of Batangas; southwestern coastal area of Quezon – 2.1 to 3 meters high
• coastal areas of Aurora, Zambales, Occidental Mindoro; rest of the coastal areas of Bicol, Batangas, Quezon – 1 to 2 meters high

Travel is also risky for all types of vessels in:

• seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1, 2, 3, and 4 – rough to phenomenal seas, with waves 2.5 to 15 meters high
• remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon as well as eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas that are not under a tropical cyclone wind signal and Caraga – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.5 to 5 meters high

In the remaining seaboards of the country, there are moderate to rough seas, with waves 1.2 to 2.5 meters high. PAGASA advised those using small vessels to take precautionary measures, while “inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.”

Rolly could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday morning, November 3.

Image from PAGASA

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Atsani, located outside PAR, is now 1,480 kilometers east of Southern Luzon.

The tropical depression is moving northwest at 25 km/h and may enter PAR on Sunday afternoon.

Once Atsani enters, it will be given the local name Siony. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

This means there would be two tropical cyclones inside PAR at the same time, though PAGASA said Atsani “remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days.”

Atsani continues to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. But it is likely to reintensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Rolly is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, while Siony would be the 19th. Rolly is also the 5th tropical cyclone for October alone.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year.

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• November 2020 – 1 to 3
• December 2020 – 2 or 3
• January 2021 – 0 or 1
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1
• April 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com